Ibn Khuldoon, the great Arabic historian, lived in an age when the Arabic world was dominated by small fiefdoms (duwaylat) that came to power by force and survived by hereditary rule. In the Foreward, the first volume of the famous Universal history, he outlined his theory of how history tends to evolve in these small dynasties.

The dynasties tend to last for only three generations. The first generation keeps holding on to the hard realities of life in the countryside or the desert, while the second generation expands on the cultural frontier, while the third generation degenerates and becomes decadent, becoming more urban and more vulnerable, until a new dynasty comes and takes over.

Let's adapt his theory to the modern time. The first generation is hardened by the circumstances of the desert and rural life, becoming more able to use this expand its borders, frontiers, and consolidate its power. The second generation focuses on developing society, the country's infrastructure, leading to massive economic and cultural expansion. The third generation falls into decadence, extravagence, increased corruption, economic decline, and inner squabbles and fights between the ruling elite.

Is history repeating itself for one of the powerhouses of the region, and therefore, let's be honest, the small states around it whose policies and political structure are in one way or another dependent on it?

¶ 2:28 PM